TREND ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL IN THE DISTRICTS OF WEST BENGAL, INDIA: A STUDY FOR THE LAST CENTURY

Kaustuv Mukherjee

Abstract


South-west monsoon dominated eastern India has considerable variation of rainfall occurrences through time. Being a state of eastern India, West Bengal is not an exception in this case with its vast areal extent (88,752 sq. km.). This is a state of vast physiographic and climatic differences. Keeping these things in mind, present study focuses on the trend analysis of rainfall over all the districts of West Bengal for the 20th century. Mann-Kendall trend statistics is used to show the trend and Sen’s estimator of slope is used to depict the magnitude of the trend. Lastly, a simple co-relation among the weather variables has been done to show the impact of rainfall in changing hydrological conditions of the state. The result shows that most of the districts have a downward trend of rainfall although the rainfall in the South-Bengal has an increasing trend. Over-all, rainfall in the monsoon period has decreased and it has increased in the post-monsoon period. Maximum decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall in the last century is seen in the Maldah district (at the rate of 0.509 mm. per year) and maximum increasing trend is seen in the North 24 Parganas district (at the rate of 0.344 mm. per year). In the past century, rainfall has a negative co-relation with temperature, potential evapo-transpiration and reference crop evapo-transpiration.


Keywords


Rainfall Trend, Season, Mann-Kendall Trend Statistics, Sen’s Slope, Co-relation.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Basistha, A., Arya, D. S., & Goel, N. K. (2009). Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 555–572.

Burn, D. H., Cunderlik, J. M., & Pietroniro, A. (2004). Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard river basin. Hydrol. Sci. J., 49, 53–67.

Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., & Knoll, C. N. (2000). Trends in flood and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J. Hydrol., 240, 90–105.

Ghosh, S., Luniya, V., & Gupta, A. (2009). Trend analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall at different spatial scales. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 10, 285–290.

Jain, S. K., & Kumar, V. (2012). Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, 102(1), 37-49.

Henderson, J., Rodgers, C., Jones, R., Smith, J., Strzepek, K., & Martinich, J. (2015). Economic impacts of climate change on water resources in the coterminous United States. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, 20,135–157. DOI 10.1007/s11027-013-9483-x.

Hurd, B., Callaway, M., Smith, J. B., & Kirshen, P. (1999). Economic effects of climate change on U.S. water resources. Chapter 6. In: R. Mendelsohn & J. E. Neumann (Eds.), The impact of climate change on the United States economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

IPCC. (2001). Climate Change 2001. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Karl, T., Melillo, J., & Peterson, T. (Eds.). (2009). Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Kendall, M.G. (1975). Rank correlation methods (4th ed.). London, Charles Griffin.

Kothyari, U. C., & Singh, V. P. (1996). Rainfall and temperature trends in India. Hydrol. Process, 10, 357–372.

Kothawale, D. R., Munot, A. A., & Krishna K. K. (2010). Surface air temperature variability over India during 1901–2007, and its association with ENSO. Climate Res., 42, 89–104.

Kumar, V., Singh, P., & Jain, S. K. (2005). Rainfall trends over Himachal Pradesh, Western Himalaya, India. Conference on Development of Hydro Power Projects – A Prospective Challenge, Shimla, 20–22 April 2005.

Kumar, V., & Jain, S. K. (2010). Trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days in Kashmir valley in the last century. Quaty Intl., 212, 64–69.

Kumar, V., Jain, S. K., & Singh, Y. (2010). Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol. Sci. J., 55, 484–496.

Lal, M. (2003). Global climate change: India’s monsoon and its variability. J. Environ. Stud. Policy, 6, 1–34.

Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., & Wallis, J. R. (1994). Hydroclimatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. J. Climate, 7, 586–607.

Mann, H.B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 245-259.

Mandal, S., Choudhury, B. U., Mondal, M., & Bej, S. (2013). Trend analysis of weather variables in Sagar Island, West Bengal, India: a long-term perspective (1982–2010). Current Science, 105 (7), 947-953.

Mehrotra, R. (1999). Sensitivity of runoff, soil moisture and reservoir design to climate change in central Indian river basins. Climatic Change, 42, 725–757.

Mirza, M. Q., Warrick, R. A., Ericksen, N. J., & Kenny, G. J. (1998). Trends and persistence in precipitation in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins. Hydrol. Sci. J., 43, 845–858.

NMSA (National Meteorological Service Agency). (2007). Climate Change National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia. NMSA, Addis Ababa. Retrieved on June 23, 2013, from NMSA database.

O’Brien, K.L., & Leichenko, R.M. (2000). Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environ Change, 10, 221–232.

Pal, I., & Al-Tabbaa, A. (2009). Trends in seasonal precipitation extremes – an indicator of climate change in Kerala, India. J. Hydrol., 367, 62–69.

Partal, T., & Kahya, E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol. Process, 20, 2011–2026.

Pattanaik, D. R. (2007). Analysis of rainfall over different homogeneous regions of India in relation to variability in westward movement frequency of monsoon depressions. Nat. Hazards, 40(3), 635–646.

Rathore, L.S., Attri, S.D., & Jaswal, A.K. (2013). State Level Climate Change Trends In India, Earth System Science Organisation, India Meteorological Department, Ministry Of Earth Sciences, Government Of India, Meteorological Monograph No. Esso/Imd/Emrc/02/2013.

Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India, (2012), "Area, population, decennial growth rate and density for 2001 and 2011 at a glance for West Bengal and the districts: provisional population totals paper 1 of 2011: West Bengal".

Reidsma, P., Ewert, F., & Oude Lansink, A. (2007). Analysis of farm performance in Europe under different climate and management conditions to improve understanding of adaptive capacity. Climate Change, 84, 403–422.

Reidsma, P., Oude Lansink, A., & Ewert, F. (2009). Economic impacts of climatic variability and subsidies on European agriculture and observed adaptation strategies. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, 14, 35–59. DOI 10.1007/s11027-008-9149-2.

Safari, B. (2012). Trend Analysis of the Mean Annual Temperature in Rwanda during the Last Fifty Two Years. Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 538-551.

Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389.

Singh, N., Sontakke, N. A., Singh, H. N., & Pandey, A. K. (2005). Recent trend in spatiotemporal variation of rainfall over Indian investigation into basin-scale rainfall fluctuations. IAHS Publication No. 296, 273–282.

Singh, P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T., & Arora, M. (2008), Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in different river basins in the northwest and central India. Hydrol. Process., 22, 2982–2992.

Srivastava, H. N., Dewan, B. N., Dikshit, S. K., Rao, P. G. S., Singh, S. S., & Rao, K. R. (1992). Decadal trends in climate over India. Mausam, 43, 7–20.

Subbaramayya, I., & Naidu, C. V. (1992). Spatial variations and trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 12, 597–609.

Thapliyal, V., & Kulshreshtha, S. M. (1991). Climate changes and trends over India. Mausam, 42, 333–338.

Tol Richard. S.J. (2011). The Economic Impact of Climate Change in the 20th and 21st Centuries. Climate Change, Assessment Paper, Copenhagen Consensus on Human Challenges.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. (2004). Mann-Kendall Analysis for the Fort Ord Site. Annual Groundwater Monitoring Report – Former Fort Ord, HydroGeoLogic, Inc. – OU-1, California.

Watson, R.T. (2001). Climate Change 2001, Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Core Writing Team (Eds.), Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Yu, Y. S., Zou, S., & Whittemore, D. (1993). Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. J. Hydrol., 150, 61–80.

Yue, S., & Hashino, M. (2003). Temperature trends in Japan: 1900–1990. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 75, 15–27.






Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

ISSN: 2319-5606

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright © Blue Ocean Publication (www.borjournals.com). All Rights Reserved.